This "3 degrees increase is much better than 5" bullshit of the UNFCCC Executive Secretary shows a naive view (simplistic, static) of what is dynamically going on. As soon as the negative (restraining, dampening, inhibiting) forces - that are active in the negative feedback loops - can no longer cope the positive (amplifying, accelerating) forces - that are active in the positive feedback loops - (i.e. can no longer counteract and dampen those forces) the system becomes unstable and you end up in an infinite roller coaster trajectory of state changes that humanity will absolutely not be able to survive. In other words, beyond 1.5 is nothing but madness and meltdown.
Setting the 1.5 limit (in Paris) was a risky gamble anyway (a global compromise) because it is super stupid to let such a complex system drift so quickly and so far from its equilibrium state. In my opinion, the system is already in a crash now (since 2023): after all, far too many subsystems (Amazon, Congo Basin, gulf streams, poles, permafrost, oceans, heat zones, glaciers, vegetation) are already permanently overshooting their familiar bandwidths.
How many five sigma events (see here what Louise Simm recently observed at Antarctica) within those subsystems do scientists and the UNFCCC task force have to experience before they finally dare to call a spade a spade (i.e., climate meltdown)?
The upcoming COP 30 can only make sense if it faces the climate dynamics realistically, stops formulating illusions, and tries in full force to unanimously declare a global state of emergency within which can be legitimately ensured that all countries totally disarm, and minimalise all fossil-using processes via strict rationing.
We can't go on ruining the only place we have.